This paper examines periods of pronounced rises and falls of real house prices since 1970 in eighteen major industrial countries, with particular focus on the lessons for monetary policy. We find that real house prices are pro-cyclical—co-moving with real GDP, consumption, investment, CPI...

2001 Annual Report essay

The strong rise in home prices since the mid-1990s has raised concerns over a possible bubble in the housing market and the effect of a sharp price decline on the U.S. economy. This article assesses two measures frequently cited to support a bubble-the rising price-to-income ratio and the...

This paper was presented at the conference "Policies to Promote Affordable Housing," cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and New York University's Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, February 7, 2002. It was part of Session 4: Housing Subsidies and Finance, and is a...

After a long period during which house prices were not affected by distance from Chicago's central business district, values now decline by more than 8 percent per mile. Annual appreciation rates in house prices are higher in neighborhoods close to the city center with large minority...

The rapid rise of real estate prices in recent years has led to fears of a housing price bubble. But, to determine whether there has been a bubble–and whether the bubble is bursting–one needs to know what home prices “should” be. The authors estimate a simple model of home prices and...

Quieter aircraft are causing the 65-db noise contour band around O'Hare Airport to shrink over time, even in the event that air traffic increases by nearly 60 percent after the proposed expansion of the airport. Forecasts imply that home prices will increase by nearly $280 million (in 1997...