This paper tests the hypothesis that real per capita income growth rates are random walks against the hypothesis implied by models of endogenous growth that they are stationary. Thereby the influence of the choice of different test statistics as well as the choice of the H0 on the test results...

Dynamic equilibrium models are specifted to track time series with unit root-like behavior. Thus, unit roots are typically introduced and the optimality conditions adjusted. This step requires tedious algebra and often leads to algebraic mistakes, especially in models with several unit roots. We...

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...