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The psychology literature provides ample evidence that people have difficulties taking the perspective of less-informed others. This paper presents a controlled experiment showing that this "curse of knowledge" can cause comparative overconfidence and overentry into competition. In a broader...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010403249
The psychology literature provides ample evidence that people have difficulties taking the perspective of less informed others. This paper presents a controlled experiment showing that this "curse of knowledge" can cause comparative overconfidence and overentry into competition. In a broader...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010488505
experts. Moreover, narratives about the drivers of the inflation increase are strongly correlated with beliefs about its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799460
Workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage. In particular, low-paid workers … underestimate wages elsewhere. We document this anchoring bias by eliciting workers' beliefs in a representative survey in Germany … particularly pronounced among workers in low-wage firms. If workers had correct beliefs, at least 10% of jobs, concentrated in low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799502
We study how the subjective beliefs about loan repayment on the side of liquidity-constrained banks affect the central … banks' belief distortions and always induce the socially optimal allocation. Under uncertainty about beliefs, the central … sufficiently pessimistic beliefs realize. In extreme cases, monetary policy aims at mitigating productivity losses only, instead of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585474
Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and despite substantial debt capacity. Differences in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617622
A growing literature uses now widely available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models … show how expectations data have been used to relax strong assumptions about beliefs and outline how they can be used in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013257169
and treat correlated information as independent. In consequence, people's beliefs are excessively sensitive to well …-connected information sources, implying a pattern of "overshooting" beliefs. Additionally, in an experimental asset market, correlation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010211474
I evaluate the accuracy of people's subjective probability expectations for using various health services. Subjective expectations closely reflect patterns of observed utilization, are predicted by the same covariates as observed utilization, and correlate with objective measures of risk. At the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012244981
: excessively optimistic beliefs about future demands on an individual's time. The models can be distinguished by how individuals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012193799