In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in...

This paper investigates whether the strategic behavior of expected utility players differs from that of non-expected utility players in the context of incomplete information games where players can choose mixed strategies. Two conditions are identified where uncertainty-averse non-expected...

This paper considers the extent to which the standard argument, that the disproportionate excess burden of taxation suggests the use of tax-smoothing in the face of future cost increases, is modified by uncertainty regarding the future. The role of uncertainty and risk aversion are examined...

This paper derives a representation of preferences for a choice theory with vague environments; vague in the sense that the agent does not know the precise lotteries over outcomes conditional on states. Instead, he knows only a possible set of these lotteries for each state. Thus, this paper's...

Technological progress has long been posited to be crucial in a country's economic growth. This paper argues that coordination failure in a country's new technology investment can be one of the barriers in a country's capital accumulation and economic growth. The global game established by...

I argue that systemic bankruptcy of firms can originate from coordination failure in an economy with investment complementarities. This new explanation about the origin of systemic bankruptcy promotes better understanding of how financial fragility arises, and provides theoretical guidance for...

As illustrated by the famous Ellsberg paradox, many subjects prefer to bet on events with known rather than with unknown probabilities, i.e., they are ambiguity averse. In an experiment, we examine subjects’ choices when there is an additional source of ambiguity, namely, when they do not know...

This paper shows that, for CEU preferences, the axioms consquentialism, state independence and conditional certainty equivalent consistency under updating characterise a family of capacities, called Genralised Neo-Additive Capacities (GNAC). This family contains as special cases among others...

This paper analyzes optimizing decisions of a monopolist under uncertainty. The aspiration model directly accounts for asymmetric risk preferences with respect to downside risk. The optimal output (price) of a risk-averse monopolist facing marginal cost uncertainty will not exceed that of his...

We propose a method for conducting inference on impulse responses in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) when the impulse response is not point identified because the number of equality restrictions one can credibly impose is not sufficient for point identification and/or one imposes sign...