Incluye bibliografía ; Este artículo contribuye a la literatura que analiza los determinantes fundamentales de la dinámica de la deuda pública combinando modelos de vectores autoregresivos (VAR) y las ideas de la aproximación de Value at Risk. Los modelos que se estiman se usan para...

Los préstamos de la Unión Europea (UE) a los Estados miembros en el marco del instrumento europeo de apoyo temporal para atenuar los riesgos de desempleo en una emergencia (instrumento SURE, por sus siglas en inglés) formaron parte de la respuesta de la UE a la crisis del COVID-19 en...

The financial crisis and recession have left a legacy of unusually large fiscal deficits and growing sovereign debt levels in most advanced economies. The paper uses recent research from the IMF to throw light on two questions: how much fiscal space is available to advanced countries before they...

The Croatian system of old-age provision comprises a traditional public pay-as-you-go scheme and a mandatory funded scheme (“second pillar”) that will provide increasing amounts of supplementary pensions to those entering retirement in the future. Due to the continuing economic crisis, the...

We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to-GDP ratio; and...

This paper describes and quantifies fiscal risk in advanced and developing economies. Forecast errors in GDP growth explain nearly half of fiscal risk in advanced economies. However, errors in growth forecasts are less important in explaining fiscal risk in low- and middle-income countries. Most...

We assess public finances solvency for Euro Area countries using quarterly data between 1999Q1 and 2020Q4. Through a country-by-country analysis, the answer to the title question is true. For most countries, (i) the primary budget balance reacts positively to the lagged public debt ratio and...

Fiscal rules are argued to be important for sound and sustainable fiscal policies and have been increasingly adopted over the last 20 years. However, as increased fiscal pressure and fiscal risks urge countries to address the public debt legacy left by recent economic crises, fiscal rules come...

We study the effect of monetary policy surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal stances in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4 for a panel of the 19 countries of the Euro Area. Applying local projection methodology, we find that the effect of monetary shocks...

The indicator that is commonly used to assess the long-term fiscal sustainability of public finances in EU member states ("S2") is also defined if government borrowing rates are assumed to be permanently lower than the growth rate of GDP. Under these circumstances, however, it no longer provides...