We investigate the relationship of the market pricing of sovereign risk to default, through CDS spreads for 16 Eurozone countries during 2008q1-2013q3. We take into account, through appropriate non-linear GMM estimations the endogeneity problem. We focus on “fiscal space” (DEBT or FISCAL),...

Despite the frequency of official debt restructurings, little systematic evidence has been produced on their characteristics and implications. Using a dataset covering more than 400 Paris Club agreements, this paper fills that gap. It provides a comprehensive description of the evolving...

We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks...

We provide a new measure of sovereign country risk exposure to global sovereign tail risk (SCRE) based on information incorporated in 5-year sovereign CDS spreads. Our panel regressions with quarterly data from 53 countries show that macro risks have strong explanatory power for SCRE. After...

• The IMF staff's 2013 proposal to reprofile (i.e., stretch out for a short period without haircutting principal or interest) the maturing debt of a country that has lost market access is a sensible policy in cases where the IMF is uncertain whether the country's debt stock is sustainable.•...

We study the role of domestic financial institutions in sustaining capital flows to the private and public sector of a country whose government can default on its debt. As in recent public debt crises, in our model public defaults weaken banks' balance sheets, disrupting domestic financial...

We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks...

The English version of this paper can be found at http://ssrn.com/abstract=3941743Russian Abstract: ЕФСР продолжает серию рабочих документов о функционировании Глобальной сети финансовой безопасности...

Российскую версию этой статьи можно найти в: http://ssrn.com/abstract=3941743 The EFSD Chief Economist Group continues the series of working papers on global financial safety net (GFSN) functioning. This working paper provides the analysis how the GFSN...

With a view to establishing a Capital Markets Union (CMU), efforts to integrate (private) capital markets and private risk-sharing in the European Union are underway. However, the single (capital) market will be burdened by a perennial potential threat to sovereign bond market stability in the...