Forecasting temperature in time and space is an important precondition for both the design of weather derivatives and the assessment of the hedging effectiveness of index based weather insur-ance. In this article, we show how this task can be accomplished by means of Kriging techniques....

In this paper we investigate the impact of the recent US unemployment benefits extension on the labor market dynamic when the nominal interest rate is held at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Using a New Keynesian model, our quantitative experiments suggest that, in contrast to the existing...

In structural vector autoregressive analysis identifying the shocks of interest via heteroskedasticity has become a standard tool. Unfortunately, the approaches currently used for modelling heteroskedasticity all have drawbacks. For instance, assuming known dates for variance changes is often...

We analyze a consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives that incorporates the forward looking information available in the market by specifying a model for the dynamics of the complete meteorological forecast curve. The two-factor model is a generalization of the...

In this paper we investigate price and volatility risk originating in link- ages between energy and agricultural commodity prices in Germany and study their dynamics over time. We propose an econometric approach to quantify the volatility and correlation risk structure, which has a large impact...

We study the voluntary revelation of private, personal information in a labor-market experiment with a lemons structure where workers can reveal their productivity at a cost. While rational revelation improves a worker's payoff, it imposes a negative externality on others and may trigger further...

This paper investigates to what extent the fundamentals of the real economy are re ected in the stock prices of Japan. A Markov switching VAR model with switching variances is used to test the structural identi cation scheme. Identification of fundamental and nonfundamental shocks is shown to be...

When we started the development of our CD to support the teaching of our basic statistic courses our work was twofold: we had to develop the content and the necessary software ourselves. Maintaining our software development in a university environment turned out to be especially difficult since...

Fershtman and Judd (1987) and Sklivas (1987) show that strategic delegation reduces firm profits in the one-shot Cournot game. Allowing for infinitely repeated interaction, strategic delegation can increase firm profits as it improves cartel stability.

This study proposes a novel framework for the joint modelling of commodity forward curves. Its key contribution is twofold. First, dynamic correlation models are applied in this context as part of the modelling scheme. Second, we introduce a family of dynamic conditional correlation models based...