Expert elicitations are frequently used to characterize future technology outcomes. However their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and over-confidence is a persistent...

We conduct a sensitivity analysis to describe conditions under which liquid fuel producers would fund the development of a climate backstop. We estimate (1) the cost to develop competitively priced direct CO₂ air capture technology, a possible climate backstop and (2) the effect of this...

A frequently made claim in the innovation literature is that important inventions involve the transfer of new knowledge from one technological domain to another. This study uses U.S. patents granted from 1976-2006 to identify the role of knowledge acquired from outside each patent’s...

We present an analysis of the barriers and opportunities for incorporating air quality co-benefits into climate policy assessments. It is well known that many strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also decrease emissions of health-damaging air pollutants and precursor species, including...

This report looks at the most important uncertain details of climate change mitigation policy, depicts the dispersion of implementation details in existing policy proposals, assesses which ones will have greater cost impacts, and then describes the type of scenarios that could have major direct...