Widespread public funding of nascent energy technologies, combined with recent increases in the costs of those that have been most heavily supported, has raised the stakes of a policy dilemma: should policy makers sustain these programs anticipating that recent cost increases are temporary...

We combined an expert elicitation and a bottom-up manufacturing cost model to compare the effects of R&D and demand subsidies. We modeled their effects on the future costs of a low-carbon energy technology that is not currently commercially available, purely organic photovoltaics (PV). We found...

Characterizing the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is however scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a...

Expert elicitations of future energy technology costs can improve energy policy design by explicitly characterizing uncertainty. However, the recent proliferation of expert elicitation studies raises questions about the reliability and comparability of the results. In this paper, we standardize...

Moving non-incremental innovations from the pilot scale to full commercial scale raises questions about the need and implementation of public support. Heuristics from the literature put policy makers in a dilemma between addressing a market failure and acknowledging a government failure:...

The incorporation of experience curves has enhanced the treatment of technological change in models used to evaluate the cost of climate and energy policies. However, the set of activities that experience curves are assumed to capture is much broader than the set that can be characterized by...

This article reviews the concept of an energy technology innovation system (ETIS). The ETIS is a systemic perspective on innovation comprising all aspects of energy transformations (supply and demand); all stages of the technology development cycle; and all the major innovation processes,...

One explanation for the modest pace of efforts to mitigate climate change, both federally and internationally, is that constituents do not ascribe much beneficial value to new laws that change the way we produce and consume energy. We surveyed estimates of consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for...