Reitz, Stefan; Rülke, Jan C.; Stadtmann, Georg - In: Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer … 230 (2010) 4, pp. 454-466
We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll for the time period Oct. 1989 – Dec. 2008 to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard...