We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal...

We analyze whether exchange-rate forecasters herd. To this end, we lay out two widely studied theoretical models of forecaster herding. The models illustrate why forecasters may herd. We then empirically analyze whether forecasts of the Yen/ Dollar, Swiss franc/Dollar, German mark/Dollar, and...

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9...

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9...

Exchange rates have been found to be more volatile than underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. Researchers have argued that the empirically observed high exchange-rate volatility may result from herd behavior of foreign-exchange traders and forecasters. We sketch a standard model that...

In this paper, we use the Wall Street Journal poll of FX forecasts to analyze how the group of forecasters form their expectations. One focus is whether forecasters build rational expectations. Furthermore, we analyze whether the group of forecasters can be regarded as homogeneous or...

In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Wechselkursprognosen Anhaltspunkte dafür liefern, dass Prognostiker ein so genanntes Herdenverhalten zeigen. Auf der Basis unterschiedlicher theoretischer Modellansätze wird skizziert, warum Prognostiker einen Anreiz haben könnten, einem Herdentrieb zu...

Central to an understanding of how foreign exchange markets work is the nature of the expectations formation process. Of particular interest are the potentially stabilising of destabilising nature of these expectations. In this paper we use a unique disaggregate expectations data base to model...

Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or antiherding behavior of exchange-rate forecasters can be detected in the cross-section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange-rate...