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We propose simulation-based forecasting methods for the noncausal vector autoregressive model proposed by Lanne and … Saikkonen (2012). Simulation or numerical methods are required because the prediction problem is generally nonlinear and … simulation procedures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that gains in forecasting accuracy are achieved by using the correct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098167
This report describes the semi-aggregate model (SAM) developed to deliver aggregate projections of social protection expenditures as well as semi-aggregate projections of income sources by age class and gender for a number of European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108131
Macroeconomic models with sticky information include an infinite number of lagged expectations. Several authors have developed specialized solutions algorithms to solve these models under rational expectations. We demonstrate that it is also possible to implement this class of models in Dynare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082201
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013169034
Weak empirical evidence near and at the boundary of the parameter region is a predominant feature in econometric models. Examples are macroeconometric models with weak information on the number of stable relations, microeconometric models measuring connectivity between variables with weak...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953258
This chapter surveys two methods for the optimization of real-world systems that are modelled through simulation. These … experiment; this design fixes the input combinations of the simulation model. These regression models uses a sequence of local …-estimated through sequential designs. "Robust" optimization may use RSM or Kriging, and accounts for uncertainty in simulation inputs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956205
(Evaluation by Simulation of Innovative Solutions for the Development of Mass Transport on the Seine Axis by electric rail coupons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818392
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850643
The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925237
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012650923