In this paper, I study the equilibrium pricing of asset shares in the presence of dynamic private information. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent who observes the firm value, noise traders and competitive market makers who set share prices using the total order flow as a noisy...

We propose estimators of previous termfeatures of the distributionnext term of an unobserved random variable W. What is observed is previous termanext term sample of Y,V,X where previous termanext term binary Y equals one when W exceeds previous termanext term threshold V determined by...

This paper investigates the nature of model error in complex deterministic nonlinear systems such as weather forecasting models. Forecasting systems incorporate two components, a forecast model and a data assimilation method. The latter projects a collection of observations of reality into a...

We apply duality methods of linear and convex programming to the problems of operation and rental valuation of facilities for conversion and storage of cyclically priced goods, e.g. , energy. Both problems are approached by shadow-pricing the stock (which is a purely intermediate commodity); and...

We use the Cox process (or a doubly stochastic Poisson process) to model the claim arrival process for catastrophic events. The shot noise process is used for the claim intensity function within the Cox process. The Cox process with shot noise intensity is examined by piecewise deterministic...

This article is concerned with evaluating Value-at-Risk estimates. It is well known that using only binary variables, such as whether or not there was an exception, sacrifices too much information. However, most of the specification tests (also called backtests) available in the literature, such...

In times of ever increasing financial constraints on public weather services it is of growing importance to communicate the value of their forecasts and products. While many diagnostic tools exist to evaluate forecast systems, intuitive diagnostics for communicating the skill of probabilistic...

This edited volume features cutting-edge topics from the leading researchers in the areas of latent variable modeling. Content highlights include coverage of approaches dealing with missing values, semi-parametric estimation, robust analysis, hierarchical data, factor scores, multi-group...

Empirical evidence has emerged of the possibility of fractional cointegration such that the gap, β, between the integration order δ of observable time series and the integration order γ of cointegrating errors is less than 0.5. This includes circumstances when observables are stationary or...

We develop a sequence of tests for specifying the cointegrating rank of, possibly fractional, multiple time series. Memory parameters of observables are treated as unknown, as are those of possible cointegrating errors. The individual test statistics have standard null asymptotics and are...