This paper discusses the modelling of rainfall-flow (rainfall-run-off) and flow-routeing processes in river systems within the context of real-time flood forecasting. It is argued that deterministic, reductionist (or 'bottom-up') models are inappropriate for real-time forecasting because of the...

Operational flood forecasting requires accurate forecasts with a suitable lead time, in order to be able to issue appropriate warnings and take appropriate emergency actions. Recent improvements in both flood plain characterization and computational capabilities have made the use of distributed...

The Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling philosophy emphasises the importance of parametrically efficient, low order, ‘dominant mode’ models, as well as the development of stochastic methods and the associated statistical analysis required for their identification and estimation....