In 1991, US electric utilities spent almost $1.8 billion on demand-side management (DSM) programs. These programs cut peak demands 5% and reduced electricity sales 1% that year. Utility projections suggest that these reductions will increase to 9% and 3%, respectively, by the year 2001. However,...

The increasing use of results from probabilistic risk assessments in the decision-making process makes it ever more important to eliminate simplifications in probabilistic models that might lead to conservative results. One area in which conservative simplifications are often made is modeling...

My research over this period has focused on the theory and application of non-linear time series forecasting. The purpose of time series forecasting is to predict apparently random behavior about which we have little or no knowledge. A time series is a set of values that change in time, for...

The cost of repairing or replacing failed components depends on the number and timing of failures. Although the total probability of individual component failure is sometimes interpreted as the percentage of components likely to fail, this perception is often far from correct. Different amounts...

The strength of a salmon run is often measured as the adult return rate from some previous brood year (i.e. the percent of a smolt population returning to spawn or captured in fisheries). The U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (ACOE) program of barge transportation of smolts from collector dams is one...

Historically, utility customers have been differentiated into various customer classes, based on their utility service demand characteristics. In this paper we argue that greater differentiation, if based on value and cost of service, can be justified on grounds of economic efficiency, and if...

BPA's operating environment is filled with numerous uncertainties, and thus the rate-setting process must take into account a wide spectrum of risks. The objective of the Risk Analysis is to identify, model, and analyze the impacts that key risks have on BPA's net revenue (total revenues less...