We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985. Five procedures were identified: revising judgment; combining forecasts; revising...

In recent decades, much comparative testing has been conducted to determine which forecasting methods are more effective under given conditions. This evidence-based approach leads to conclusions that differ substantially from current practice. This paper summarizes the primary findings on what...

The assumptions of multiple regression analysis are not met in many practical forecasting situations and, as a result, regression models are insufficiently conservative. We tested the effect on forecast accuracy of applying three evidence-based forecasting guidelines to 18 political economy...

Problem: The scientific method is unrivalled as a basis for generating useful knowledge, yet research papers published in management, economics, and other social sciences fields often ignore scientific principles. What, then, can be done to increase the publication of useful scientific...

We assess how the PollyVote and its components performed in this election compared to the previous six (1992 to 2012). While always predicting that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote, across the 100 days leading to the election on average the PollyVote overshot the mark by 1.9 percentage...

Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder in the Sky, by Thomas Cleary, opens with a Chinese saying that translates: quot;The marketplace is a battlefield. The Asian people view success in the business world as tantamount to victory in...

In recent years, the American market system has come under increasing criticism from those it serves. Many young people, radicals, members of minority groups and even middle-of-the-roaders are concerned about such things as poor product quality, poor variety, unsafe products. and misleading...

quot;If you can't convince them, confuse them.quot; Simply put, this is the advice that J. Scott Armstrong, a marketing professor at the Wharton School, coolly gives his fellow academics these days. It is based on his studies confirming what he calls the Dr. Fox hypothesis: quot;An...

Corporate cultural emphasis on long-term competitiveness as opposed to shorter-term rofitability is evaluated in terms of effectiveness in achieving higher profit margins, real profitability, and survival in the long term. Competitive orientation continues to have adverse impact even with a lag...

Interesting and difficult sales forecasting problems are common. Will the 1998 Volkswagen Beetle be a success? Will the Philadelphia Convention Hall be profitable? How will our major competitors respond if we raise the price of our product by 10 per cent? What if we cut advertising by 20 per cent?