Much has been learned in the past half century about producing useful forecasts. Those new to the area may be interested in answers to some commonly asked questions.A. Forecasting, the fieldB. Types of forecasting problemC. Common sense and forecastingD. Choosing the best methodE. Assessing...

The Neyman-Pearson theory of hypothesis testing, with the Type I error rate, alpha;, as the significance level, is widely regarded as statistical testing orthodoxy. Fisher's model of significance testing, where the evidential p value denotes the level of significance, nevertheless dominates...

Over the past decade, researchers have expressed concerns over what seemed to be a paucity of replications. In line with this, editorial policies of some leading marketing journals have been modified to encourage more replications. We conducted an extension of a 1994 study see whether these...

In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts...

The three commentators on my paper agree that statistical tests are often improperly used by researchers and that even when properly used, readers misinterpret them. These points have been well established by empirical studies. However, two of the commentators do not agree with my major point...

Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do. On the negative side, experts all have access to the same information. Based on prior literature...

Forecasting is concerned with making statements about the as yet unknown. There are many ways that people go about deriving forecasts. This entry is concerned primarily with procedures that have performed well in empirical studies that contrast the accuracy of alternative methods.Evidence about...

The field of forecasting is concerned with making statements about matters that are currently unknown. The terms "forecast," "prediction," "projections," and "prognosis" are interchangeable as commonly used. Forecasting is also concerned with the effective presentation and use of forecasts

Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from...

One hundred and fifty-one subjects were randomly divided into two groups of roughly equal size. One group was asked to respond to a decomposed version of a problem and the other group was presented with the direct form of the problem. The results provided support for the hypotheses that people...