When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person's shoes. We refer to this as "role thinking", because, in practice, the advice is to think about how other protagonists will view the situation in order to predict their...

This paper summarizes the key conditions under which the index method is valuable for forecasting and describes the procedures one should use when developing index models. The paper also addresses the specific concern of selecting inferior candidates when using the bio-index as a nomination...

This study uses 59 biographical variables to create a "bio-index" for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The bio-index method counts the number of variables for which each candidate rates favorably, and the forecast is that the candidate with the highest score would win the popular vote....

Three strategies for scientific research in management are examined: advocacy, induction, and multiple hypotheses. Advocacy of a single dominant hypothesis is efficient, but biased. Induction is not biased, but it is inefficient The multiple hypotheses strategy seems to be both efficient and...

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: H₁ Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H₂ The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H₃ Causal methods...

This brief commentary on the paper Designing Research with In-built Differentiated Replication expands on concerns about a lack of replication research by focusing on three key questions of continuous importance: Why should researchers conduct more replication research? Why do so few researchers...

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four...

When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person’s shoes. We refer to this as “role thinking”, because, in practice, the advice is to think about how other protagonists will view the situation in order to predict their...

We found no evidence that consumers benefit from government-mandated disclaimers in advertising. Experiments and common experience show that admonishments to change or avoid behaviors often have effects opposite to those intended. We found 18 experimental studies that provided evidence relevant...

We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 participants (11 groups per method) who were required to solve a quantitative...