We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985. Five procedures were identified: revising judgment; combining forecasts; revising...

Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder in the Sky, by Thomas Cleary, opens with a Chinese saying that translates: quot;The marketplace is a battlefield. The Asian people view success in the business world as tantamount to victory in...

This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and domain knowledge to produce forecasts according to features of the data. We developed a rule base to make annual extrapolation forecasts for economic and demographic time series. The...

Direct assessment and protocol analysis were used to examine the processes that experts employ to make forecasts. The sessions with the experts yielded rules about when various extrapolation methods are likely to be most useful in obtaining accurate forecasts. The use of a computer-aided...

Managers are often advised, beat your competitors, which sometimes contrasts with the advice, do the best for your firm. This may lead managers to focus on comparative measures such as market share. Drawing on game theory, the authors hypothesize that managers are competitor oriented under...

This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and domain knowledge to produce forecasts according to features of the data. We developed a rule base to make annual extrapolation forecasts for economic and demographic time series. The...

This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in extrapolation. It does so by representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select and combine forecasts. We use five categories to express causal impacts upon trends: Growth,...