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Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cash prices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given the recent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassesses past...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009368378
We study the difference in the volatility dynamics of CBOT corn, soybeans, and oats futures prices across different delivery horizons via the smoothed Bayesian estimator of Karali, Dorfman, and Thurman (2010). We show that the futures price volatilities in these markets are affected by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009368381
The paper examines empirical returns from holding thirty- and ninety-day call and put positions, and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets. In both markets, implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009368384
Little information exists on grain merchandisers, their characteristics, and the skills needed to be successful. This research contributes toward filling this gap. A summary of survey responses from 230 experienced grain merchandisers quantifies personal characteristics, skills perceived as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009368385
This study develops a multi-crop insurance model which is employed to evaluate crop insurance decisions when several crops are produced jointly. The results suggest that the diversification effects derived from producing multiple crops can substantially alter the risk reduction impacts of crop...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009368386