The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing...

This paper is the first to assess operational and probabilistic externalities of oil extraction and transportation to Europe on the basis of a comprehensive evaluation of realistic future oil demand-supply scenarios, of the relative relevance of import routes, of the local specificities in terms...

The oil and gas industry, more than at any time in the past, is highly affected bytechnological advancements, new products, drilling and completion techniques, capitalexpenditures (CAPEX), operating expenditures (OPEX), risk/uncertainty, andgeopolitics. Therefore, to make a decision in the...

This study analyzes the economic and geographic effects of alternative locationson risky investment decisions in a probabilistic framework. Historically, alternativelocations for multi-million dollar investments are often evaluated with deterministicmodels that rely on expected values or best...

Für produzierende Unternehmen wird es zunehmend wichtig, auch die operativen Risiken besser zu bewerten. Daher werden Methoden benötigt, mit denen diese Risiken identifiziert und bewertet werden können. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden entsprechende Methoden entwickelt. Dabei geht es...

In the analysis of time series of blackouts a powerlaw dependency of blackout size with respect to frequency hasbeen observed. It has been hypothesized that this behaviour is theresult of the power system operating near critical points. Modelshave been created in order to analyze this type of...

Abstract This thesis presents innovative applications of Multi-Objective Decision Support Systems (MODSS) to forestry decision support. New MODSS methodologies were developed to assess and evaluate forestry practices and finance regimes. The assessment of forestry investments draw on case...

Projects are commonly over budget and behind schedule, to some extent because uncertainties are not accounted for in cost and schedule estimates. Research and practice is now addressing this problem, often by using Monte Carlo methods to simulate the effect of variances in work package costs and...

Providing a defensible basis for allocating resources for critical infrastructure and key resource protection is an important and challenging problem. Investments can be made in countermeasures that improve the security and hardness of a potential target exposed to a security hazard, deterrence...

This research was sponsored jointly by EPSRC and DETR and involved Carillion, Royal Bank of Scotland, Morrison Construction, Amec, Centre for the Built Environment in Glasgow and Public-Private Partnership Programme Ltd as partners.