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model fit suggest that, in addition to the usual level effect, the incorporation of GARCH effects and possible regime shifts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483283
model fit suggest that, in addition to the usual level effect, the incorporation of GARCH effects and possible regime shifts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010769309
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010363925
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612669
In this paper, we present a multi-factor continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) model for the short and forward interest rates. This model is able to present an adequate statistical description of the short and forward rate dynamics. We show that this is a tractable term structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010883222
In this study we develop a three-factor model of the term structure of interest rates that includes a market sensitivity parameter. In the model the future short-rate depends on the current short-rate, the short-term mean of the short rate and the current volatility of the short-rate. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008694033
This article proposes a general regime-switching univariate diffusion model to describe the dynamics of the short-term interest rate. The maximum likelihood estimates are obtained using the weekly series of U.S. three-month treasury bill rates. The estimation results reveal that there are strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005584864
This paper demonstrates how, without mechanically applying any formula like Nelson-Siegel or Nelson-Siegel-Svensson straight cut, a short term yield curve can intuitively be constructed with traded securities and then plugging the gaps with regression and cubic splines on case by case basis,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765915
curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the … level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH … with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483287
returns of different maturity and the fundamental macroeconomic factors is modelled using multivariate GARCH with conditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261080