Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner...

We propose a nonparametric likelihood ratio testing procedure for choosing between a parametric (likelihood) model and a moment condition model when both models could be misspecified. Our procedure is based on comparing the Kullback–Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC) between the parametric...

The economic equivalent value of deaths and injuries in the 1994 Northridge earthquake has not previously been calculated, although number of injuries by category of treatment has. Using dollar-equivalent values for injuries accepted and used by the U.S. government for evaluating the...

This paper is concerned with nonlinear filtering of the coefficients in asset price models with stochastic volatility. More specifically, we assume that the asset price process S=(St)t≥0 is given by dSt=m(θt)St dt+v(θt)St dBt, where B=(Bt)t≥0 is a Brownian motion, v is a positive...

Procedures are presented that allow the empiricist to estimate and test asset pricing models on limited-liability securities without the assumption that the historical payoff distribution provides a consistent estimate of the market's prior beliefs. The procedures effectively filter return data...

Exploiting a rich panel data set on anti-ulcer drug prescriptions, we measure the effects of uncertainty and learning in the demand for pharmaceutical drugs. We estimate a dynamic matching model of demand under uncertainty in which patients learn from prescription experience about the...

This thesis consists of three empirical essays on topics in industrial organization. Chapter 1 introduces the three essays and describes their main results. In chapter 2, I measure the effects of advertising on households' choices among competing brands of differentiated products when households...

We examine seismic risk from the commercial real estate investor's viewpoint. We present a methodology to estimate the uncertain net asset value (NAV) of an investment opportunity considering market risk and seismic risk. For seismic risk, we employ a performance-based earthquake engineering...

Interest in behavioral economics has grown in recent years, stimulated largely by accumulating evidence that the standard model of consumer decision making provides an inadequate, positive description of human behavior. Behavioral models are increasingly finding their way into policy evaluation,...

The Northridge earthquake will long be remembered for the unprecedented losses incurred as a result of a moderate-size event in a suburban area of Los Angeles. Current documented costs indicate that this event is the costliest disaster in U.S. history. Although it is difficult to estimate the...