Bayesian models for computer-aided underwriting have been developed for a major composite insurance company for two classes of commercial business: motor fleet and fire. The fire model produces a posterior probability distribution over a discretized dimension of risk, defined as the probability...

Three hundred and forty seven public sector employees were surveyed on four measurement occasions to investigate the conceptual distinctiveness of the psychological contract and perceived organizational support (POS) and how they are associated over time. Results support the distinctiveness of...

Despite the zero lower bound on the short nominal interest rate in Japan having become a binding constraint, conventional monetary policy in Japan, in the form of generalised open market purchases of government securities of all maturities, has never been pushed to the limit where all...

In this speech,(1) Professor Tim Besley,(2) member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), discusses the United Kingdom’s long-term structural shift from manufacturing towards services; whether this shift is consistent with increasing prosperity and growth for the UK economy; and the...

A framing effect occurs when an agent’s choices are not invariant under changes in the way a decision problem is presented, e.g. changes in the way options are described (violation of description invariance) or preferences are elicited (violation of procedure invariance). Here we identify...

Under the independence and competence assumptions of Condorcet’s classical jury model, the probability of a correct majority decision converges to certainty as the jury size increases, a seemingly unrealistic result. Using Bayesian networks, we argue that the model’s independence assumption...

We use an innovative survey tool to collect management practice data from 732 medium sized manufacturing firms in the US, France, Germany and the UK. These measures of managerial practice are strongly associated with firm-level productivity, profitability, Tobin’s Q, sales growth and survival...

In this paper we investigate the evolution of quality adjusted prices for servers motivated by two facts. First, the productivity acceleration in the US economy since the mid 1990s is closely linked to spread of information technology of which networked computing is a large component. Second,...

Although there is a large literature on the economic effects of minimum wages on labour market outcomes (especially employment), there is hardly any evidence on their impact on firm performance. This is surprising: minimum wages appear to have a significant impact on wages, but only a limited...

This paper develops a framework to analyze the relationship between the diffusion of new technologies and the decentralization decisions of firms. Centralized control relies on the information of the principal, which we equate with publicly available information. Decentralized control, on the...