This paper uses ALIS data to compare academic performance in two subjects often viewed as relatively close substitutes for one another at A-level. The important role of GCSE achievement is confirmed for both subjects. There is evidence of strong gender effects and variation in outcomes across...

The idea of combining discrete-event simulation and system dynamics has been a topic of debate in the operations research community for over a decade. Many authors have considered the potential benefits of such an approach from a methodological or practical standpoint. However, despite numerous...

Small area estimation techniques typically rely on regression models that use both covariates and random effects to explain variation between the areas. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do...

Cointegration has important implications for portfolio diversification. One of these is that in order to spread risk it is advisable to invest in markets that are not cointegrated. Over the last several decades communication technology has made the world a smaller place and hence cointegration...

Conventional (single-prior) Bayesian games of incomplete information are limited in their ability to capture the extent of informational asymmetry. In particular, they are not capable of representing complete ignorance of an uninformed player about an unknown parameter of the environment. Using...

We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is...

Purpose ? The UK Chinook helicopter is a utility and attack helicopter being operated by the Royal Air Force (RAF). Its versatile nature is of enormous importance to the strategic capability of the RAF's operations. The purpose of this paper is to utilise systems-based forecasting to conduct an...

A covariance matrix of asset returns plays an important role in modern portfolio analysis and risk management. Despite the recent interests in improving the estimation of a return covariance matrix, there remain many areas for further investigation. This thesis studies several issues related to...