This paper describes the development and application of a simulation tool for modelling patient choice in healthcare systems. Patient choice is already offered in the English National Health Service (NHS) and proposed reforms will propel choice to the forefront of NHS re-structuring by offering...

Consumers are often confronted with choices between options that vary in their short and long term benefit, or what we call immediate and delayed utility. This paper describes the marketing implications of what economists and psychologists have learned about how consumers make these choices. The...

An optimal investment problem is solved for an insider who has access to noisy information related to a future stock price, but who does not know the stock price drift. The drift is filtered from a combination of price observations and the privileged information, fusing a partial information...

Asymptotic inference in nonlinear vector error correction models (VECM) that exhibit regime-specific short-run dynamics is nonstandard and complicated. This paper contributes the literature in several important ways. First, we establish the consistency of the least squares estimator of the...

In this article we extend and implement the forward search algorithm for identifying atypical subjects/observations in factor analysis models. The forward search has been mainly developed for detecting aberrant observations in regression models (Atkinson, 1994) and in multivariate methods such...

It is increasingly understood across the information technology and services sector that engagement with the open source software model can serve as a means for firms to capture intellectual energy, learn about productive software processes, access relevant technical skills, identify and recruit...

In this paper, I study the equilibrium pricing of asset shares in the presence of dynamic private information. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent who observes the firm value, noise traders and competitive market makers who set share prices using the total order flow as a noisy...

This paper investigates the nature of model error in complex deterministic nonlinear systems such as weather forecasting models. Forecasting systems incorporate two components, a forecast model and a data assimilation method. The latter projects a collection of observations of reality into a...

We use the Cox process (or a doubly stochastic Poisson process) to model the claim arrival process for catastrophic events. The shot noise process is used for the claim intensity function within the Cox process. The Cox process with shot noise intensity is examined by piecewise deterministic...

In times of ever increasing financial constraints on public weather services it is of growing importance to communicate the value of their forecasts and products. While many diagnostic tools exist to evaluate forecast systems, intuitive diagnostics for communicating the skill of probabilistic...