Cointegration has important implications for portfolio diversification. One of these is that in order to spread risk it is advisable to invest in markets that are not cointegrated. Over the last several decades communication technology has made the world a smaller place and hence cointegration...

Conventional (single-prior) Bayesian games of incomplete information are limited in their ability to capture the extent of informational asymmetry. In particular, they are not capable of representing complete ignorance of an uninformed player about an unknown parameter of the environment. Using...

We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is...

Purpose ? The UK Chinook helicopter is a utility and attack helicopter being operated by the Royal Air Force (RAF). Its versatile nature is of enormous importance to the strategic capability of the RAF's operations. The purpose of this paper is to utilise systems-based forecasting to conduct an...

A covariance matrix of asset returns plays an important role in modern portfolio analysis and risk management. Despite the recent interests in improving the estimation of a return covariance matrix, there remain many areas for further investigation. This thesis studies several issues related to...

We introduce a new point process, the dynamic contagion process, by gener- alising the Hawkes process and the Cox process with shot noise intensity. Our process includes both self-excited and externally excited jumps, which could be used to model the dynamic contagion impact from endogenous and...

Economic theory typically assumes the existence of few unobserved unpredictable stochastic disturbances, called structural shocks, driving the whole economy. Would the economy be representable as a very high dimensional stochastic vector process, those shocks would be the reduced rank innovation...

We study the topological properties of the multinetwork of commodity-specific trade relations among world countries over the 1992–2003 period, comparing them with those of the aggregate-trade network, known in the literature as the international-trade network (ITN). We show that link-weight...

We study the community structure of the multi-network of commodity-specific trade relations among world countries over the 1992-2003 period. We compare structures across commodities and time by means of the normalized mutual information index (NMI). We also compare them with exogenous community...

When observed over a large panel, measures of risk (such as realized volatilities) usually exhibit a secular trend around which individual risks cluster. In this article we propose a vector Multiplicative Error Model achieving a decomposition of each risk measure into a common systematic and an...