Many structural break and regime-switching models have been used with macroeconomic and …nancial data. In this paper, we develop an extremely flexible parametric model which can accommodate virtually any of these speci…cations and does so in a simple way which allows for straightforward...

Many structural break and regime-switching models have been used with macroeconomic and nancial data. In this paper, we develop an extremely flexible parametric model which can accommodate virtually any of these speci cations and does so in a simple way which allows for straightforward Bayesian...

This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging. Theoretical justifications for averaging across models, as opposed to selecting a single model, are given. Practical methods for implementing Bayesian model averaging with factor models are...

This paper discusses the consumption-wealth relationship. We use data on consumption, assets, and labor income and a vector error correction framework. This framework defines a set of models that differ in the number of co-integrating vectors, the form of deterministic components and lag length....

The role of various types of road user tolls has been an important part of Norwegian transport development for a number of years. There are now around 50 such projects in operation around the country. This paper examines the urban toll ring projects and presents results from new research into...