bootstrap simulations were used for assessing the uncertainty in inflation rate forecasts in Romania. …The forecast uncertainty was one of the causes of the recent economic crisis and its evaluation became more necessary …

This paper formally incorporates parameter uncertainty and model error into the estimation of contingent claim models … and the formulation of forecasts. This allows inference on functions of interest (option values, bias functions, hedge … ratios) consistent with uncertainty in both parameters and models. We show how to recover the exact posterior distributions …

forecasted using probability under conditions of uncertainty. …

revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving … policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be mitigated if data revisions were predictable, this paper sets out to … paper show that the real-time consideration of these forecasts has the potential to improve the precision with which past …