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This dissertation consists of two essays on predictability of asset prices. "Benchmarking problems and long horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009451119
We investigate the behavior of the equilibrium price-rent ratio for housing in a simple Lucas-type asset pricing model. We allow for time-varying risk aversion (via external habit formation) and time-varying persistence and volatility in the stochastic process for rent growth, consistent with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143817
Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test for the ability of such a model to explain the cross-section of expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271695
According to standard theory, wealth should have no intrinsic value. Yet, conventional wisdom, recent theories, and data suggest it might. We verify whether or not households have direct preferences over wealth in selecting assets. The fully structural econometric model focuses on a multivariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005518839
, constant gain learning may sometimes contribute towards explaining the stock price volatility and the predictability of excess …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537401
predictability can be explained by time-variation in economic risk premiums. Instead of testing a traditional beta pricing model, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427449
This paper provides evidence of short-run predictability for the real exchange rate by performing out-of-sample tests …-term predictability on the bilateral rates of 15 out of 17 countries vis-à-vis the US over the post Bretton-Woods float. A GMM estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011098121
returns, and predictability. The level and variation in the equity premium and the predictability in returns match historical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107734
Empirical studies demonstrated that US baby boomers consumption and savings patterns have affected economic aggregates over the past decades, among them equity returns. Boomers’ retirement is expected to mitigate the demand for equities until 2050, but its impact varies with the specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011117741
We investigate the behavior of the equilibrium price-rent ratio for housing in a simple Lucas-type asset pricing model. We allow for time-varying risk aversion (via external habit formation) and time-varying persistence and volatility in the stochastic process for rent growth, consistent with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010787784