Understanding the workings of whole economies is essential for sound policy advice - but not necessarily for accurate forecasts.  Structural models play a major role at most central banks and many other governmental agencies, yet almost none forecast the financial crisis and ensuing...

Обозначен вопрос построения комплексной системы формирования эффективной бизнес-стратегии производственного предприятия в условиях конкуренции....

Статья посвящена построению факторных регрессионных и авторегрессионных моделей, объясняющих динамику темпов инфляции в экономике Республики Казахстан в...

Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade...

Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade...

Using a log-linearized approximation to an aggregate budget constraint, it is possible to show that the ratio of consumption to total (human and non-human) wealth summarizes agents' expectations concerning both future labor income and future asset returns. In a series of recent papers, Lettau...

If asset returns are predictable, then rational expectations and the arithmetic of budget constraints together imply that these predictable changes in returns should affect current consumption. This paper presents a new framework linking consumption, income, and observable assets to expectations...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Suriname’s macroeconomic performance has strengthened markedly over the past decade. Since 2000, stronger policies and buoyant commodity prices, supported by political stability, have helped improve macroeconomic performance, enabling...

The analysis of inflation developments in Belarus is hampered by widespread price controls. Persistence of common inflation is generally higher than that of actual inflation. Factor analysis assumes that covariation among time series can be explained by a few unobserved shocks (factors). The...