Sometimes a regulatory requirement or a quality-assurance procedure sets an allowed maximum on a confidence limit for a mean. If the sample mean of the measurements is below the allowed maximum, but the confidence limit is above it, a very widespread practice is to increase the sample size and...

Quantification of uncertainty in predictions of nuclear waste repository performance is a requirement of Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations governing the licensing of proposed geologic repositories for high-level radioactive waste disposal. One of the major uncertainties in these...

This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational asset transfers and the choice of the discount rate for use in cost-benefit analysis in a model of a competitive overlapping generations economy constrained by a socially managed exhaustible resource. Provided that there are no...

This paper describes statistical software developed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) to analyze event time of occurrence data extracted from fault tree data banks and/or user defined input data files. Five different distributions can currently be fit to the empirical data: normal, lognormal,...

When a designed experiment is conducted, the exact levels of controlled experimental variables specified by the design may not be attainable. Two different types of situations can occur in which the actual settings of the design variables deviate from the target design settings. In one case, the...

1991 was continued rapid growth for the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) as it broadened its interdisciplinary research into the organization, evolution and operation of complex systems and sought deeply the principles underlying their dynamic behavior. Research on complex systems--the focus of work at...

A simple model is used to analyze the performance of a system for verifying compliance with an arms control treaty. Blue and Red are partners in to a treaty. Blue prefers to comply, but is uncertain whether Red similarly prefers compliance (in the absence of threatened violation detection)....

Three specific models are investigated: (1) diversion and k distinct falsifications (k + 1 degrees of freedom); (2) diversion and the accumulation of all the falsifications (2 degrees of freedom); (3) diversion only (1 degree of freedom). A test statistic has been derived for models (1) and (2)...

The International Coal Statistics Data Base (ICSD) is a microcomputer-based system which contains information related to international coal trade. This includes coal production, consumption, imports and exports information. The ICSD is a secondary data base, meaning that information contained...

In non-parametric function estimation, providing a confidence band with the right coverage is a challenging problem. This is especially the case when the underlying function has a wide range of unknown degrees of smoothness. Here we propose two methods of constructing an average coverage...