We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...

We explore the effects of information propagation in a centralized financialmarket. Specifically, we embed search frictions within the Grossman andStiglitz (1980) framework, relying on information percolation as modeled inDuffie, Malamud, and Manso (2009). First, we show that information...

A flat Securities Market Line is not evidence against the CAPM. In a rational-expectations economy in which markets are not informationally efficient, the CAPM holds but is rejected empirically (Type I Error). There exists an information gap between the empiricist and the average investor who...

Investment is a means to experiment with technologies, creating valuable knowledge for firms. We analyze the feedback interaction between investment and knowledge through endogenous cycles of experimentation and exploration. Because experimentation is uncertain, firms become averse to investing...