We investigate the dynamic problem of how much attention an investor should pay to news in order to learn about stock-return predictability and maximize expected lifetime utility. We show that the optimal amount of attention is U-shaped in the return predictor, increasing with both uncertainty...

The term structure of equity risk has been shown to be downward sloping. We capture this feature using return dynamics driven by both a transitory and a permanent component. We study the asset allocation and portfolio performance when transitory and permanent components cannot be observed and...

Recent empirical findings document downward-sloping term structures of equity return volatility and risk premia. An equilibrium model with rare disasters followed by recoveries helps reconcile theory with empirical observations. Indeed, recoveries outweigh the upward-sloping effect of...

Equilibrium asset-pricing models with time-varying expected economic growth have been criticized for their apparent inability to generate an upward-sloping yield curve and downward-sloping term structures of equity risk and risk premium. We theoretically investigate the model-implied equilibrium...

We propose a macro-fi nance model that rationalizes robust features in equity-index option markets. When rare disasters are followed by economic recoveries, the slope of the implied volatility term structure is positive in good times but turns negative in bad times. Additionally, implied...

Financial contagion occurs when return and volatility transmit between fundamentally unrelated sectors. Our equilibrium model shows that contagion arises because investors pay fluctuating attention to news. As a negative shock hits one sector, investors pay more attention to it. This raises the...

We investigate in a theoretical framework the joint role played by investors' attention to news and learning uncertainty in determining asset prices. The model provides two main predictions. First, stock return variance and risk premia increase with both attention and uncertainty. Second, this...