We study the relation between order imbalance and past returns and firm characteristics and testa number of hypothesis including the disposition effect, momentum and contrarian trading, taxlossselling and flight-to-quality hypothesis. These hypotheses make predictions about investors’buy or...

Pairwise stock correlations increase by 27% on average when stock returns arenegative. It is trading activity in small stocks that leads to higher correlationswhen returns are negative. We provide evidence consistent with the hypothesisthat co-ordinated selling by retail investors drives this...

We examine active retail mutual funds and institutional products with a mandate to invest ininternational equity markets between 1991 and 2009. Using global and regional factor models,we find no reliable evidence of alphas in the aggregate or on average. The right tail of thedistribution...

We construct and estimate a unified model combining three of the main sources of cross-country income disparities:[...]

Most time series models used in econometrics and empirical finance are estimated withmaximum likelihood methods, in particular when interest centers on density and Value{at{Risk (VaR) prediction. The standard maximum likelihood principle implicitly placesequal weight on each of the observations...

We study a number of large international military conflicts sinceWorld War II where we establish a news analysis as a proxy for theestimated likelihood that the conflict will result in a war. We findthat in cases when there is a pre-war phase, an increase in the warlikelihood tends to decrease...

We analyze numerically the superreplication problem and the associatedhedging strategy in an illiquid binomial market. We prove theexistence of an optimal feedback strategy for European and barrier optionsand compute it numerically by means of a dynamic programmingprinciple. We exhibit that the...

We propose a technique to avoid spurious detections of jumps in highfrequencydata via an explicit thresholding on available test statistics. Weprove that it eliminates asymptotically all spurious detections. MonteCarlo results show that it performs also well in finite samples. In DowJones...

Many postulated relations in finance imply that expected asset returns should monotonicallyincrease in a certain characteristic. To examine the validity of such a claim, onetypically considers a finite number of return categories, ordered according to the underlyingcharacteristic. A standard...

The paper examines questions of local asymptotic stability of randomdynamical systems. Results concerning stochastic dynamics ingeneral metric spaces, as well as in Banach spaces, are obtained. Theresults pertaining to Banach spaces are based on the linearization ofthe systems under study. The...