This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly...

This paper focuses on assessments of real exchange rates using PPP data and examines their limitations when these are based exclusively on bivariate estimations. It begins by presenting an analytical framework of the real exchange rate that shows that these estimations make many restrictive...

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access...

The article estimates the likely credit losses in the EU10 countries' banking sector, supposing that economic conditions were to deteriorate further, and that local currencies were depreciated. Factors that may affect the cumulative level of credit losses are discussed. The article concludes...

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources from the General Resources Account in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches—the time-series behavior of credit outstanding and a...

This collection of papers examines IMF-supported programs over the period 1995-2000 in both middle-income and low-income countries. In order to seek insights from a comparison across different types of programs, the sections entitled"Objectives and Outcomes," "Policy Formulation and Analytical...

This paper reviews developments in corporate performance in the FYR Macedonia during the 1990s. The paper finds substantial differences in performance between surviving old firms and nimbler new ones. The paper reviews factors that facilitated restructuring among surviving firms, and concludes...

This paper examines the role of IMF-supported programs in crisis prevention; specifically, whether, conditional on an episode of intense market pressures, IMF financial support helps prevent a capital account crisis from developing and, if so, through what channels. In doing so, the paper...

Numerous reports have noted that the IMF's medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sample forecasting properties relative to those of IMF projections. The model's...

This paper examines the design of economic policies using factor analysis, which has several advantages; in particular, it limits the problems that typically arise from the high correlation of economic policy indicators, it helps in identifying clusters of economic policy, and it facilitates the...