This paper examines two fiscal policy puzzles related to the effects of government spending shocks. Contrary to theoretical predictions, recent empirical evidence suggests a crowding-in of consumption and a depreciation of the real exchange rate after a government spending increase. While...

This paper estimates a two-country open economy DSGE model by using U.S. and Euro Area data. The baseline model, where the two regions are linked only through the trade of goods and risk-free bonds, fails to replicate the high cross-regional macro-economic correlation in the data. I search for...

Should Asia feel anxious about China's expansion? We look for the answer through the Bayesian estimation of a two-country New Keynesian model of production fragmentation covering ten Asian economies, including China. The estimates show that vis-à-vis China, the developed Asia has a more...

An open economy New Keynesian policy model for Australia is estimated in this study. We investigate how important external shocks are as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations when compared to domestic ones. The results of our analysis suggest that the Australian business cycle and domestic...

We estimate a workhorse dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an occasionally binding borrowing constraint. First, we propose a new specification of the occasionally binding constraint, where the transition between the unconstrained and constrained states is a stochastic...

Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...

The GARCH(1,1) model and its extensions have become a standard econometric tool for modeling volatility dynamics of financial returns and port-folio risk. In this paper, we propose an adjustment of GARCH implied conditional value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts that exploits the...

This paper analyses Czech and Hungarian index options that are traded on the Austrian Futures and Options Exchange. We find that the Poisson jump-diffusion and not the GARCH (1,1) process lends statistical support for the data description. We estimate that approximately four-fifth of 4 percent...

The empirical joint distribution of return-pairs on stock indices displays high tail-dependence in the lower tail and low tail-dependence in the upper tail. The presence of tail-dependence is not compatible with the assumption of (conditional) joint normality. The presence of asymmetric-tail...

In this paper we 'update' the option implied probability of default (option iPoD) approach recently suggested in the literature. First, a numerically more stable objective function for the estimation of the risk neutral density is derived whose integrals can be solved analytically. Second, it is...