Forecast combinations, also known as ensemble models, routinely require practitioners to select a model from a massive number of potential candidates. Ten explanatory variables can be grouped into 21078 forecast combinations, and the number of possibilities increases further to 21078+21078 if we...

This paper outlines a strategic plan for the development of the fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models. The plan features a new Canadian workhorse macroeconomic model as well as a suite of alternative models to better support a risk management approach to...

This paper examines the lead/lag relations between size-sorted portfolio returns through the lens of financial cycles governing these returns using a novel econometric methodology. Specifically, we develop a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization...

The subject of research in this paper is the profitability of the biggest banks in the European financial market, some of which operate in Montenegro. The profitability of banks is influenced by a large number of factors, including internal banking and external macroeconomic factors. The aim of...

When in proxy-SVARs the covariance matrix of VAR disturbances is subject to exogenous, permanent, nonrecurring breaks that generate target impulse response functions (IRFs) that change across volatility regimes, even strong, exogenous external instruments can result in inconsistent estimates of...

A simple methodology is presented for modeling time variation in volatilities and other higher-order moments using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetricsTM approach. We update parameters using the score of the forecasting distribution. This allows the parameter dynamics...

The estimation of inflation volatility is important to Central Banks as it guides their policy initiatives for achieving and maintaining price stability. This paper employs three models from the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family with a view to providing a...

There are a number of econometrics tools to deal with the different type of situations in which cointegration can appear: I(1), I(2), seasonal, polynomial, etc. There are also different kinds of Vector Error Correction models related to these situations. We propose a unified theoretical and...

This paper examines the Taylor rule in five emerging economies, namely Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey. In particular, it investigates whether monetary policy in these countries can be more accurately described by (i) an augmented rule including the exchange rate, as well as...

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is often used by regulators to create a pseudo-competitive environment for sectors with natural monopolies. In addition to develop a theoretically well-behaved model, regulators need to take into account several other factors, such as the political agenda and the...