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We investigate the performance of Value at Risk (VaR) models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. VaR models are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Widespread VaR models do not...
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has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for … the measurement of oil price shocks. …
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alternatives and more economically plausible. We discuss implications of our analysis for the estimation of economic models of …
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Using a novel dataset, we develop a structural model of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market between the Arabian Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand...
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