This paper documents the suite of models used by Norges Bank to estimate the output gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages, investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the estimated output gap series in terms of its forecasting properties, its...

In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...

We develop a structural method for identifying the unobservable rate of capacity utilization in 14 EU countries, by simultaneously estimating the coefficients of a production function, an investment function, a labor productivity function and an unemployment function. Our results provide...