a minority of voters are biased, but harmful when a majority is biased. In theory, information on the success of policy … choices elsewhere de-biases voters and alleviates the inefficiency. However, in the experiment, providing social information … on success is ineffective and does not de-bias voters. …

perspective. Still no one could explain entirely the existent bias between expected future spot rates and forward rates, the so … called puzzle in the expectation hypothesis.In this work we will address this issue through arbitrage theory, in particular … measures, we will find adjustments that will able us to explain this bias in the expectation hypothesis …

We provide empirical evidence that the optimism bias increases with the forecasting horizon. We label this empirical … regularity the horizon bias. In the US and abroad, professional forecasters demonstrate significant horizon bias in their … macroeconomic expectations. Our results show a horizon bias which cannot be easily explained by strategic considerations …