We introduce and investigate some properties of a class of nonlinear time series models based on the moving sample quantiles in the autoregressive data generating process. We derive a test fit to detect this type of nonlinearity. Using the daily realized volatility data of Standard & Poor's 500...

Smooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) models, competitors of Markov-switching models, are limited by an assumed time-invariant threshold level. We augment the STAR model with a time-varying threshold that can be interpreted as a 'tipping level' where the mean and dynamics of the VAR shift....

This paper explores the relationship between export, import, and output for Thailand over the period from 1990 to 2017. The threshold vector autoregressive (VAR) and threshold vector error correction (VEC) models were applied. The empirical evidence confirms that the export-led growth hypothesis...