This paper considers that possibility that expected future government deficits directly affect economic decisions, in particular the decisions of the Federal Reserve. Some evidence is presented in Section II that indicates that the behavior of the Fed may be influenced by expected future...

This paper compares the Medoff-Fay estimates of labor hoarding during troughs, which are based on data from manufacturing plants, with aggregate estimates of excess labor on hand.The two sets of estimates seem consistent, which provides a strong argument in favor of the excess labor hypothesis....

Feldstein argues in his Fisher-Schultz Lecture that he has found, by accounting for inflation and taxes, large and significant rate of return effects on investment. His results are interesting because they seem to be robust to alternative specifications of the investment equation. Feldstein has...

Estimated effects of relative prices on trade shares are presented in this paper for 64 countries. The equations are estimated using pooled time series, cross section data under the assumption that the error term is serially correlated across time and heteroskedastic across countries. The...

This paper provides quantitative estimates of the output, price, interest rate, and exchange rate linkages among a number of countries. The econometric model that is used for this purpose is described in Fair (1981), and the present paper is an extension of this work. The linkages are examined...

A multi-country econometric model is presented in this paper. The theoretical basis of the model is discussed in Fair (l979a), and the present paper is an empirical extension of this work. The model is quarterly and contains estimated equations for 44 countries. Most of the equations have been...

The prediction accuracy of six estimators of econometric models are compared. Two of rthe estimators are ordinary least squares (OLS) and full-information maximum likelihood. (FML). The other four estimators are robust estimators in the sense that they give less weight to large residuals. One of...

The Cowles Commission approach is reviewed and compared to the approaches of real business cycle (RBC) theorists and new Keynesian economists. It is argued that RBC models are not tested in a serious enough way and that the new Keynesian literature is not empirical enough for testing even to be...

This paper shows how probability questions can be answered within the context of macroeconometric models by using stochastic simulation. One can estimate, for example, the probability of a recession occurring within some fixed period in the future. Probability estimates are presented for two...

This study uses data on men's track and field and road racing records by age to estimate the rate at which men slow down with age. For most of the running events (400 meters through the half marathon), the slowdown rate per year is estimated to be .80 percent between ages 35 and 51. At age 51...