An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its...

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its...

A popular way to approximate Federal Reserve policy is through the use of estimated interest rate equations, or policy "rules." In these rules, the dependent variable is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve is assumed to control and the explanatory variables are those factors assumed to...

Tick data on the S&P 500 futures contract and newswire searches are used to match events to large five minute stock price changes. 58 events that led to large stock price changes are identified between 1982 and 1999, 41 of which are directly or indirectly related to monetary policy. Many large...