A popular way to approximate Federal Reserve policy is through the use of estimated interest rate equations, or policy rules. In these rules, the dependent variable is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve is assumed to control and the explanatory variables are those factors assumed to...

Age effects in baseball are estimated in this paper using a nonlinear fixed-effects regression. The sample consists of all players who have played 10 or more "full-time'' years in the major leagues between 1921 and 2004. Quadratic improvement is assumed up to a peak-performance age, which is...

Since Meese and Rogoff's (1983) results, the view has become fairly widespread that structural models of exchange rates are not very good. There is, however, somewhat of a dichotomy in the literature between those who deal with small models, where the focus is almost exclusively on exchange...

Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous...

Injury rates in thirteen U.S. women’s college sports and four U.S. girls’ high school sports are examined in this paper. The sports are categorized as high injury (H) or low injury (L) and differences in injury rates between the two are examined. Estimates are presented of the injury...

This chapter discusses computational methods for the estimation and analysis of macroeconometric models. The chapter focuses on methods that, while possibly computationally routine, are not trivial. Most of the methods discussed are methods for complete models. The results reported in Fair and...

The methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of econometric models are discussed in this chapter. The use of these methods should allow to decide upon the model that best approximates the true structure of the economy and how much confidence to place on the predictions from a given model....

This paper compares results from the narrative approach of Romer and Romer (1989) to those from the structural approach regarding the effects of monetary policy on real output. The results from both approaches lead to the conclusions that monetary policy matters and that the effects build slowly...

This paper presents a way of estimating how accurate VAR models are likely to be for answering structural questions. Data are generated from a dynamic deterministic solution of a structural model; a VAR model is estimated using a subset of these data; and the properties of the VAR model are...

This paper considers that possibility that expected future government deficits directly affect economic decisions, in particular the decisions of the Federal Reserve. Some evidence is presented in Section II that indicates that the behavior of the Fed may be influenced by expected future...