This paper discusses some macro links that are missing from trade models. A multicountry macroeconometric model is used to analyze the effects on the United States of increased import competition from China, an experiment that is common in the recent trade literature. In the macro story a fall...

This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008–2009 recession was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy, the errors in predicting output for the 2009.4–2017.4 period are within what one would...

This comment points out mismeasurement of variables in the DSGE model in Smets and Wouters (2007) and in models that follow the Smets-Wouters measurement procedures. The mismeasurement errors appear to be large

This comment points out mismeasurement of three of the variables in the DSGE model in Del Negro, Giannoni, and Schorfheide (2015). These errors began with the model in Smets and Wouters (2007), and they also exist in other models that use the Smets-Wouters model as a benchmark. The...

This paper lists 19 points that follow from results I have obtained using a structural macroeconomic model (SEM). Such models are more closely tied to the aggregate data than are DSGE models, and I argue that DSGE models and similar models should have properties that are consistent with these...

This paper examines the question whether information is contained in forecasts from DSGE models beyond that contained in lagged values, which are extensively used in the models. Four sets of forecasts are examined. The results are encouraging for DSGE forecasts of real GDP. The results suggest...

This paper shows that about 70 percent of the variance of the yearly change in the world private financial saving rate can be explained by lagged changes in world stock and housing prices for the sample period 1982-2013. The results suggest that increased fluctuations in asset prices since 1995...

This paper provides estimates of the effects of the fall in financial and housing wealth in 2008-2009 on overall macroeconomic activity. These effects are large and account for a large fraction of the slowdown in activity. Much of the 2008-2009 recession is estimated to be simply standard wealth...

This paper uses a small model in the Cowles Commission (CC) tradition to examine the limits of aggregate data. It argues that more can be learned about the macroeconomy following the CC approach than the reduced form and VAR approaches allow, but less than the DSGE approach tries to do

This paper uses stochastic simulation and my U.S. econometric model to examine the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments. Are the variances, covariances, and parameters in the model such as to favor one instrument over the other, in particular the interest rate over the money supply? The...