This paper studies the revisions of the expenditure approach variables of the National Accounts, the most popular tool in macroeconomic forecasting and analysis. Preliminary figures get most attention. But how reliable are they? Generally, preliminary figures underestimate growth rates. Some...

One-year-ahead forecasts by the OECD and by national institutes of GDP growth and inflation in 13 European countries are analysed. RMSE was large: 1.9 % for growth and 1.6 % for inflation. Six (11) OECD and 10 (7) institute growth forecast records were significantly better than an average growth...