We study the nature of firm pay dynamics. To this end, we propose a statistical model that extends the seminal framework by Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis (1999a) to allow for idiosyncratically time-varying firm pay policies. We estimate the model using linked employeremployee data for Sweden from...

This paper proposes a minimum distance (MD) estimator to estimate panel regression models with measurement error. The model considered is more general than examined in the literature in that (i) measurement error can be non-classical in the sense that they are allowed to be correlated with the...

It is common to transform data to stationarity, such as by differencing and demeaning, before estimating factor models in macroeconomics. Imposing these transformations, however, limit opportunities to learn about trending behaviour. Trends and deterministic processes can play a central role in...

We study identification in a binary choice panel data model with a single predetermined binary covariate (i.e., a covariate sequentially exogenous conditional on lagged outcomes and covariates). The choice model is indexed by a scalar parameter θ, whereas the distribution of unit-specific...

This paper builds a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis - a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a...

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated datafor the Euro-zone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparisondemonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output...

The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of forecasting models. An MCS is a set of models that is constructed so that it will contain the "best" forecasting model, given a level of confidence. Thus, an MCS is analogous to a confidence interval for a...

This paper proposes a new semi-nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation method for estimating production functions. The method extends the literature on structural estimation of production functions, started by the seminal work of Olley and Pakes (1996), by relaxing the scalar-unobservable...

In diesem Aufsatz wird die nichtparametrische Autoregression auf die Prognose von Quantilen angewendet. Verfahren der Kernregression werden benutzt, um zu autoregressiven Quantiisschätzern zu gelangen. Da die üblichen Maße zur Beurteilung der Prognose, wie etwa der mittlere quadratische...

In econometric modelling the choice of relevant variables is of crucial importance for the Interpretation of the results. In many cases it is based on some a priori knowledge from economic theory and a rather heuristic procedure for determining other influential variables sometimes based on an...