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According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...
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Determining the exchange rate pass-through on inflation is a necessity for central banks as well as for firms and households. This is an apparently easy and intuitive task, but it faces high complexity and uncertainty. This paper examines the short and long-term impact of an exchange rate shock...
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vector autoregression and model averaging techniques, where aggregation takes place before, during and after the estimation …
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estimation of the different models, respectively. We find that overall the large Bayesian VAR provides the most precise forecasts …
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