We conduct a comprehensive asset pricing analysis for the U.S. property/liability insurance industry using monthly data from 1988 to 2015. We find that state-of-the-art models such as the Fama and French (2015) five-factor model cannot explain the returns of property/liability insurance stocks...

We evaluate whether machine learning methods can better model excess portfolio returns compared to the standard regression-based strategies generally used in the finance and econometric literature. We examine 17 benchmark factor model specifications based on Expected Utility Theory and theory...

We examine the predictability of expected stock returns across horizons using machine learning. We use neural networks, and gradient boosted regression trees on the U.S. and international equity datasets. We find that predictability of returns using neural networks models decreases with longer...

We provide theoretical and empirical arguments in favor of a diminishing marginal premium for market risk. In capital market equilibrium with binding portfolio restrictions, investors with different risk aversion levels generally hold different sets of risky securities. Whereas the traditional...

This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of riskneutral and realized...

This paper shows that changes in market participants' fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and...

We explore the term structures of claims to a variety of cash flows: U.S. government bonds (claims to dollars), foreign government bonds (claims to foreign currency), inflation-adjusted bonds (claims to the price index), and equity (claims to future equity indexes or dividends). Average term...

We propose a new measure of financial intermediary constraints based on how the intermediaries manage their tail risk exposures. Using a unique dataset for the trading activities in the market of deep out-of-the-money S&P 500 put options, we identify periods when the variations in the net amount...

This article aims to extend evaluation of the classic multifactor model of Carhart (1997) for the case of global equity indices and to expand analysis performed in Sakowski et. al. (2015). Our intention is to test several modifications of these models to take into account different dynamics of...

We study the term structure of variance swaps, equity and variance risk premia. A model-free analysis reveals a significant price jump component in variance swap rates. A model-based analysis shows that investors' willingness to ensure against volatility risk increases after a market drop. This...